Beltway Sniper Archives
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July 03, 2003
TalkLeft links to "Sniper suspect's lawyers try to postpone publication of police chief's book":
In a request filed in federal court, attorney Thomas Mann said Montgomery County Police Chief Charles Moose has ''strategically planned the launch of his book just prior to Muhammad's trial in an attempt to obtain as much money as possible from the results of his official investigation.''
I don't know whether past attempts to ban books about on-going trials have been successful or not, but I think I can predict Mrs. Moose's reaction based on past events:
Instead of following the law, he and his big-mouthed wife, an image consultant and CEO of Chief Moose Inc., have hurled reckless charges of racism at county employees. Mrs. Moose whined to the panel that the couple resented having to answer to "a fully white group to give him permission to make some money." She likened her spouse to Martin Luther King Jr. and Nelson Mandela as a civil-rights trailblazer who "stood for principle."
Click the category link directly below for more Beltway Sniper coverage.
If you want to buy Moose's book ("Three Weeks in October"), click here.
Posted at 01:17 PM
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June 18, 2003
From the WaPo:
Montgomery County Police Chief Charles A. Moose has resigned in order to free himself from the ethical concerns surrounding his plans to write a personal account of last fall's sniper manhunt... Moose, who became a national hero [huh? --lw] as the sturdy face of the sniper task force...
The county Ethics Commission had ruled in March that Moose should halt work on the book project, but on Friday his publisher, E.P. Dutton, listed the book for sale on the Amazon.com Web site. [The book is
Three Weeks in October]
See also Michelle Malkin's "Charles 'show me the money' Moose":
Instead of following the law, he and his big-mouthed wife, an image consultant and CEO of Chief Moose Inc., have hurled reckless charges of racism at county employees. Mrs. Moose whined to the panel that the couple resented having to answer to "a fully white group to give him permission to make some money." She likened her spouse to Martin Luther King Jr. and Nelson Mandela as a civil-rights trailblazer who "stood for principle."
His wife has targeted not just county employees, but Marriot Hotels as well: "Marriott paid Moose big bucks after racism charge?":
"Hotel security asked to see his key, as is standard practice, and his reply was, 'Don't you know who I am? I'm Chief Moose!'" he said.
The last article has several links to other Moose stories.
Click the "Sniper" link directly below for my contemporaneous coverage of the Beltway Sniper case.
Posted at 11:04 AM
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January 07, 2003
From the NYT: "Lee Malvo, the 17-year-old held in the sniper shootings near Washington, may have been handed over to the older defendant in the case, John Muhammad, by his mother as collateral to guarantee that she would pay for forged immigration documents, according to an Antiguan government report released yesterday."
(I can't get this page to load, but just from scanning the source, it looks like an apologia.)
Posted at 02:15 PM
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November 30, 2002
Orin Kerr has a link to an NYT article that apparently says that the sniper could have been caught earlier with more and better mega databases. He thinks "that it took the police lots of uses of databases, information sharing, and citizen-informant work to catch the sniper." I'm going to comment on the database part. I haven't read the NYT article, but anyway:
Poindexter's dream DB (a dream now shared by IBM and perhaps Dumpster Divin' Larry "call me Lawrence" Ellison) could have even caught John Muhammad before he went to DC. It would have tracked gas purchases, stolen credit cards, gun purchases, etc. After Muhammad shot the friend of his ex-wife and shot a couple people on golf courses and started travelling across the country committing other crimes, a query might have put all those things together and come up with a short list of possible suspects.
Of course, that dream DB could be put to other productive uses as well. Such as electronically ruining the lives of political enemies, checking up on all the people who've ever read, say, Desert Solitaire, and other good things. We'd be an infinitely safer society, and many crimes would be prevented in the envisioning stage. The DB could even record cases where suspects were trying to avoid the DB, such as by using cash as much as possible. And, even easier, it could record those who say bad things about it. Then, those suspects could be dealt with.
As for the sniper case, all that was needed to solve it earlier was a) better police work, b) better cooperation between humans, and c) less PC.
Cops have made statements along the line of "we were looking for an angry white man in a white van." Moose knew from the first letter that there was a good chance the perps had some Jamaican connection. He stated the perps could be any race. Which is a good thing to say publicly, but he should at the same time have informed police that they might be black.
Then, there were the five or so times that calls from the snipers were ignored.
And, most important of all, two independent witnesses to the shooting of Pascal Charlot spotted a dark Chevy Caprice. There was some question over the color, and a mini-truck was spotted at the same time. However, that was a very key piece of evidence that was more or less ignored. It's no surprise that that was the only shooting that occurred in D.C. (insert Chandra Levy case here). Perhaps the D.C. police didn't inform the rest about the Caprice spotting, or it was ignored for one reason or another. The D.C. police have said that they were looking for a Caprice.
You put all that together and you see that, in addition to talking about the white van and the white truck, they should also have talked about the Caprice. There are many fewer old Caprices driving around than white trucks.
Any one of the dozen or so cop stoppings of the Caprice could have turned into either an immediate arrest, or further investigation. That is, if the cops who had stopped the Caprice had realized that a Caprice was being looked for. No ultra databases needed there, just telling the various agencies to look out for Caprices in addition to white vans and trucks.
And, note that the witness reports of the Caprice are in an entirely different category than all those tips that were being called in. There were thousands and thousands of tips being called in. That's too much for a human to deal with. The cops already have software to record and sort leads like this. That's a good use of DB technology.
However, there were at most a few hundred data points from all the shootings. By data points I mean witness reports, shell casings, tarot cards, surveillance tapes, and all the other evidence. A human can easily handle this amount of data. One human should have seen how important the Caprice sighting was and should have made sure that it was being searched for as well.
Bear in mind that the snipers were spotted by a citizen who heard on his scanner that the cops were looking for a Caprice. If that report had been promulgated earlier, they probably would have been caught earlier.
Parenthetically, you can read my theorizing in the archives. I, Jim Henley, Freerepublic, and many others spent time trying to figure out why the white truck couldn't be found. Muhammand and Malvo were to a certain extent living under the radar; a mega DB would have to include, say, spy cams at rest areas to record entries and exits and be hooked into the YMCA.
ObImmigration: Did you know that 58% of Mexicans AGREED with this question: "the territory of the United States' Southwest rightfully belongs to Mexico."
For the full poll results, click here. At what point in time do we start putting quotation marks around "country" and "citizen"? For more on, say, Jorge Castaneda's threat to being "propagating militant activities," see the entries below or the comments here.
What if we polled American citizens with this hypothetical question:
"58% of French citizens believe the Louisiana Purchase to be invalid, and believe that the state of Louisiana rightfully belongs to France. The French government does not discourage French citizens who emigrate to Louisiana. Should we allow those 10 million French citizens currently in Louisiana to become U.S. citizens?"
I would hope the numbers would be about 95% against.
UPDATE: The Pascal Charlot witnesses might have been confused over the make/model of the car, but even if that wasn't resolved by showing them various makes and models, it would still indicate an old Chevy.
A $250 Chevy is an urban ride; I'm sure it more or less stood out like a sore thumb in suburban Washington SUVland or pickupland further south.
The guy(s) who caught the sniper at the rest area had the car's license plate number; the cops had not released that info, they'd got it from their scanners. However, even if the cops didn't have a license plate number, like I said Caprices aren't that common.
Posted at 01:51 PM
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October 31, 2002
This article says ballistics linked the rifle used in the spree to the Alabama killing ... since witnesses in that slaying said Muhammad and John Lee Malvo only had a handgun, the rifle revelation suggests a third person could have been involved.
And, this article has a Wendy's employee who saw a blue Chevrolet Caprice that was parked parallel to the Ponderosa on the back lot of Wendy's. A few minutes later, he said, a burgundy car pulled alongside the Chevrolet. He saw a man get out of the burgundy car and joined the person already in the Chevy.
And, there's the witness who (apparently) gave or tried to give Muhammad an alibi for the Ashland shooting, as discussed here.
Posted at 10:50 AM
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October 28, 2002
This horribly written article makes everything sounds so... convenient. But, it does have two really neat drawings: "The Car" and "The Gun." That just makes everything so clear. Thanks Newsweek.
Anyway, it contains more than a few scary quotes, including:
Top officials... were angry that reporters had let slip that the Pentagon had provided spy planes... “It’s a chess move we would rather have made in the dark,” one police official said.
And:
A witness outside the Fredericksburg, Va., Michaels craft store, scene of a shooting on Oct. 4, reported a “dark-colored vehicle with New Jersey tags” leaving the scene. A woman calling the tip line on Oct. 7 said she had spotted a black man crouching beneath the dashboard in a dark Chevy Caprice. The woman was struck by the intensity of the man’s stare. The agent on the tip line brushed her off. “We’re looking for a white truck,” she said.
Posted at 12:18 PM
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October 27, 2002
The card to which they wanted money transferred was stolen from a Greyhound bus driver, and she didn't realize it had been stolen. As you can see by looking at the PDF files available at WaPo, the PIN number from the sniper's note is 9595. Just a minor nag. Was that the PIN number the Greyhound driver was using, and she had written it on the card, or was it a made up PIN number that John and his "son" wanted to be the new PIN? If the latter, what's the 9595 mean?
On another note, I'd like to know how they found out about the Msgr. with whom they discussed their spree. Out of the yellow pages, or what?
And, whatever happened to those spy planes? Have they stopped flying yet? Was their deployment temporary or "temporary?"
With each report, Mr. Muhammad is beginning to look more and more like someone whose primary motivation was $$$. While other motivations no doubt played a part, he appears to have been more of a schemer and small-time crook than, say, a super intelligent international terrorist. Just because he's a bit of a dummy doesn't necessarily mean he's a patsy, however: Jennifer and James Tyson, an African American couple from Upper Marlboro, said they were not convinced police had found the sniper because the two arrested men were black.
Posted at 12:22 PM
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According to this article, One official said that the suspects failed to arouse police suspicion because they did not fit the beliefs that already were forming in the case. "Everyone thought we were looking for an angry white guy in a white van," said a senior government official. "Instead, it was really two black guys in a blue Chevy. We got stuck on that white van."
Correction. You appear to have been stuck on the "angry white guy" part as well.
However, some witnesses apparently saw one or two white men in a white van or truck, and others saw Hispanics/MEs. None of the witness statements that I ever heard about ever said anything about the snipers possibly being black. Moose did say several times that the shooters might be of any race.
Possible "Sniping While White" profiling aside, what might have solved this case earlier is if a description of the Caprice had been released to the public, or if police had been made more aware of it. The sniper's "death car" was stopped at least 10 times by traffic cops; perhaps one of them would have put 2 and 2 together.
Releasing information on the Caprice might have been somewhat difficult; one report describes it as dark, another describes it as beige. This article offers one possible explanation for the confusion: Witnesses saw a Caprice with its lights out, Ramsey said, but they also saw a burgundy Toyota Camry speed away and may have confused the two and come up with the wrong color. This article says "The D.C. police were talking about that Caprice."
Posted at 11:30 AM
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October 25, 2002
It turns out that the root cause of John Muhammed's alledged spree killings might not be due to religion, sociopathic hatred, or crime after all. In fact, the root cause has been discovered.
As this story makes clear, he was just "a former member of the U.S. Army," no other identifying information other than his name is given. That's linked to off the WaPo's KidsPost; gotta plant those seeds early.
This story even goes so far as to give one possible defense tactic: "We have people that are on death row now, people that killed and don't even know they've killed, and they were also in the area of the sarin gas exposure," Riley said.
This story is a little more intellectually honest.
This report contains the interesting statement This person is an American, he’s a former Gulf War vet, he’s black, he’s a criminal and he also may be mentally ill — and yet all those factors suddenly can be minimized and the Muslim name Muhammad rises above all these other realities of who he is.
Posted at 07:17 PM
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According to this article:
Meanwhile, agents traced Muhammad to a car registered to an address in Camden, N.J., which housed a Caribbean take-out restaurant on the ground floor and apartments above...
Some said they had never seen [Muhammed]. Others said they saw him each day at the restaurant, called the All Nation's Club, working as a cook while reggae music blared for customers. "Anytime I'd go there, he'd be cooking," said neighborhood resident Anthony Thomas.
Thomas said he had last seen Muhammad on Saturday night, the same night the sniper shot a man in a Richmond, Va, suburb
According to yahoo, it's 241 miles from Camden NJ to Ashland VA. So, either the witness is lying, mistaken, or they drove really fast. The Ponderosa shooting took place at "around 8pm."
The circumstances of the call to the msgr. is also pretty interesting.
Posted at 02:25 PM
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ALTERNATE UNIVERSE, MD - OCTOBER 25 (AP) - Police today announced the arrest of a suspect in the Beltway Sniper case. He is described as a blond, blue-eyed, white supremacist with known ties to a veritable grab bag of militia, white supremacist, neo-Nazi, and ultra-Christian groups. The suspect, Christopher McChristian, is further described as heavily tattooed, a disgruntled loner, a skinhead, and the owner of guns.
This just in: he's also a pro-life registered Republican with an active NRA membership. Reports that a poster of Charlton Heston was found in the suspect's car remain unconfirmed at press time.
Posted at 12:33 PM
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October 24, 2002
I think an easy way to characterize alledged sniper Mr. Muhammed is as a sociopathic, megalomaniacal control freak Muslim convert with a hatred for America on his (perhaps first and) last mission. Have I covered all bases?
He spoke highly of the 9/11 terrorists, he converted to Islam several years back, he provided security for the Million Man March, and he changed his name to Muhammed last year. So, I think anyone who attempts to ignore the Islam connection is an apologist of the worst sort.
But, I don't think he did what he's alledged to have done solely for religious or political reasons.
It would be convenient to blame everything on his religious beliefs, but I can only blame part. I think he's more or less an evil sociopath. He knew what he was doing, and he could have stopped. I doubt if he was hearing voices like our favorite epistolary Dave Berkowitz. So, hopefully, an insanity defense will not be available to him. Hopefully his request for money will be used to show that he wasn't just insane. Hopefully the kid will get the death penalty or at least life as well, and won't be able to get a reduced sentence by turning on his "dad."
I'd imagine that both of them are completely isolated from other prisoners; now or later he's target #1 for any other prisoner looking to make a name for himself.
For those who try to dissemble that this isn't about Mr. Muhammed's religious beliefs, is this story about the doc's religious beliefs?
I also think it might be time to take a little more in-depth look at Matthew Dowdy. While everything I said in that post still seems true, the possibility that he was intentionally giving the cops disinformation becomes somewhat more likely with a) the fact that Dowdy was in prison and might have converted while there, and b) Mr. Muhammed and friend don't appear as bright as originally thought.
I note that CAIR is already trying to apologize this away. "Police reports indicate the suspects acted alone, based on their own motivations. There is no indication that this case is related to Islam or Muslims."
Gosh, I'd like to believe you. It's just that me and all those millions of others who hear that Mr. Muhammed has expressed pro-9/11 hijacker sentiments then gone on a terror spree near Washington D.C. costing us 10 lives and millions of dollars that might be a little, er, skeptical as to his non-religious motivations.
Using the picture, it should be fairly easy to track his travels throughout the region. The fact that he or Malvo had quite the temper should help. I hope that any possible connection with anyone else is thoroughly investigated. While he appears to have bought the gun before becoming homeless, and appears to have been living on the cheap in his car, there's always the possibility that he received money, shelter, or other aid from accomplices.
There's very little chance that he's just a patsy who's taking the fall. However, there is the chance that his arrest provided the cover for his accomplices to escape.
Supposedly, "Investigators now believe that the Caprice was involved in all the shootings. Sightings of white vans and box trucks were attributed to erroneous witness accounts."
I think part of the difficulties in resolving this situation before now can be attributed to certain problems with the local populace. Many of them seem to have not been prepared for something like this to happen, even after there had been 10 shootings. Many of the people in that area no doubt spend 8 hours behind a desk, followed by shopping trips to Home Depot and Michael's. Perhaps it would be too much to have asked for them to have toughened up and been good witnesses.
Posted at 10:20 PM
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October 22, 2002
This blogger admirably admonishes the cops for taking advantage of all those "good citizen" voluntary searches on I95 and elsewhere related to the MD shooter.
Unfortunately, he spoils it by preceding it with his own creepy-n-silly "solution" to the MD shooter case.
Hey, how do we know all those Salem "witches" weren't really witches after all? You never know, now do you? Some of them might actually have been witches, right?
Posted at 09:27 PM
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October 21, 2002
I read on freerepublic.com the speculation that the shooter might have been using a motorbike. That makes sense if he has to run from the police: a motorbike can go between cars and I guess many can go faster than cop cars. Plus, they can fit in the backs of vans and box trucks. However, I tend to notice motorbikes more than cars, and some of them, but I guess not all, make more noise than many cars. Would a rice burner or similar attract notice in the areas where the shootings have occurred, or are there a lot of them on the roads?
Also courtesy of FR, here's an actual useful idea: have the cops shoot flares in the air to light up the inevitable wooded area. Of course, it would also make any targets easier to see, but I don't think it would matter.
Posted at 08:16 PM
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First, doesn't stopping the guys in the white van at the phone booth in the manner described here kinda tip the cop's hand? Shouldn't they have carefully followed them and done the arrest away from the phone booth so the real shooter would continue to try to get in touch with them? Yeah, I know. They're there, let's get them while we can. But, it seems like that was somewhat of a mistake.
Back to the real shooter. Could he and his partner be gay? That would explain why one hasn't turned in the other. The rampage could have started when they learned that they were both HIV+, or that they couldn't afford HIV drugs. That might also, in one way or another, explain why there haven't been male victims between 14 and 36.
Unless of course the liquor store clerk was the first victim, in which case the age range 23 to 36 seems less of an issue. However, the liquor store clerk shooting might have been done by someone else, and it just gave the current shooter his idea. If that's correct, then I wonder how he found out about the clerk shooting. I doubt whether it was anything more than a small blurb in the WaPo, maybe it wasn't even in a newspaper at all. In that case, he could have found out about it through some direct or indirect connection with the liquor store, the shopping center it's in, the police, the paramedics, the hospital, etc.
If, however, the liquor store clerk was the first victim, then two of the victims are Indian. Is that percentage supported by the demographics of the areas in which they were shot?
Posted at 06:26 PM
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October 20, 2002
The latest shooting happened at a steak house in Ashland, VA. Looking at an aerial photo, I guess the steakhouse is on the southwest intersection near the red pushpin. That photo is also 8 years old, so the area might have changed since then. It looks like the easiest way out would be to run through the wooded area either east or southeast to a waiting vehicle. Rather than heading north, the vehicle would head south a block, turn right on Junction, and then get to Highway 1, the north/south street on the left side of the aerial photo. As shown on the street map, heading south on Highway 1 and turning left on Ashcake Rd. takes you to I95 after 2.5 miles. From there, it's not that far to the maze of streets and freeways surrounding Richmond, where it would probably be easy for the shooter to lose himself in the crowd.
But, what's he going to do when he reaches Richmond? Is he going to keep driving around all night? Is he going to get a motel room? Or, a campground? And, the idea of getting back on I95 seems risky. This time, it apparently took just one minute for the first cop to arrive on the scene; for all the shooter knew, the local PD could have blocked entrances to I95. It's probably more likely that he took some combination of side roads back to wherever he was going; as this post makes clear, that probably wasn't that difficult.
There's also the possibility that this is organized terrorism, and the shooter already had a local safe house. Less likely is that he biked or hiked somewhere. Although, the surrounding area appears to be fairly flat, and someone in good shape could probably cover a lot of ground fairly quickly. He might have even made an impromptu camp somewhere within hiking or biking distance. In the morning, he could catch a Greyhound bus back to his home base. If he's doing this without a vehicle, however, one would think that bloodhounds searching for the scent of a recently shot gun would be able to find him.
I also note that this victim is 36 years old, the youngest male victim except for the 13 year old kid. This shooting also lends doubt to the theory of 9 kills in 11 attempts being some kind of 9/11 code.
Posted at 02:51 PM
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October 19, 2002
Unqualified Offerings hypothesizes that Matthew Dowdy, who is accused of giving false witness in the MD shooting case, might be the shooter or his accomplice.
In a word, no.
While I might be wrong, he seems to me to be a bit of a bumbler. How else would you describe someone who claims to have been outside the Home Depot where the shooting occurred, but then is found to have been inside? I would tend to think that it would be physically impossible for the shooter to be inside the Home Depot at the same time or even shortly after the shooting occurred. The shot was supposedly fired from at least 30 yards, and more likely 100 or more. Was he able to sprint that distance to the inside of the store? I don't think so.
So, could he be the shooter's accomplice? The shooter certainly appears to be cold and calculating. Why would the shooter choose someone as his accomplice who appears to be a bumbler? Why would the shooter need this red herring of the cream-colored van and the AK-74 anyway? He's already evaded the police so far, and he already has the perfect opportunity to throw red herrings their way, such as by leaving another tarot card with something weird written on it. Nonetheless, if the false witness suspect is his accomplice, wouldn't he have chosen a place to stand where his red herring story wouldn't have been easily proven to be false? Did the shooter really need a red herring story to get away? If he was the shooter's accomplice, weren't he and the shooter taking an extremely large risk? Taking risks doesn't seem to fit all of the shooter's past actions.
Another scenario is this: the shooter met the suspect in a bar, and offered him $1000 to act as a false witness. To avoid the possibility that the suspect would tip off the police, he picks him up in the white van and takes him to (the suspect's local) Home Depot just before the shooting.
That makes as little sense as the first idea. The shooter is, once again, cold and calculating. He wouldn't risk letting someone else know who he is by driving him around, or revealing his identity beforehand. And, faced with the thought of getting $1000 or getting $500,000, I think we know what would have happened.
So, I think the idea that the false witness suspect is somehow otherwise involved is really wacky. I think the more likely explanation is that he wanted to grab his 15 minutes and he saw a good chance and took it. The reward might have played a part. Speculation that this is somehow an al Queda plot might have resulted in him IDing Osama's very own gun.
BTW: The cops probably figured out that he might not be telling the truth by interviewing the other people in the store. If several of them said they saw the suspect inside the store, that would tend to indicate he was inside the store. Maybe HomeDepot even has a surveillance camera over their entrances and exits. The tape would be timecoded, and even if not it would be possible to tell when the shooting occurred by looking for a bunch of people running out (or, more likely, running in).
UPDATE: Here's another wacky scenario. You are marginally acquainted with the suspect either personally or through his work. You start discussing the shooter situation with him, just as no doubt thousands of conversations have taken place between residents of the area. You fill his head with al Queda this, al Queda that. You get him, for instance, to picture an AK-74 in his mind. You make him think that he's come up with these ideas all by himself. You never, of course, tell him you're the shooter. You just find someone suggestible, and fill his mind with your suggestions.
Then, you, posing as someone he's never met who got his name from the phone book, call him at 9pm and say you have a rush job for him the next morning. He immediately rushes out to Home Depot to get supplies for this "job." He's completely unaware that the "job" is just a hoax. You're lying in wait at the Home Depot for him to arrive. When he does, you shoot and leave. He immediately starts playing back the mental pictures that you're planted in his mind: an AK-74 carrying terrorist. In this case he's not an accomplice, he's just someone who got played.
While I'm sure things slightly similar to that have happened before, I think the probability of it happening in this case is extremely remote.
Posted at 02:27 PM
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October 18, 2002
Looking at the list of the shooter's victims here, I notice a couple of interesting things. They've probably been noticed by the cops already, but anyway:
- except for the 13-year-old boy, no male under 39 was shot. In other words, no males between 14 and 38 have been shot.
- 4 out of 6 shown male victims were wearing beards of some kind (at least in the photos provided, whether they were clean-shaven or not at the time I don't know)
- the last seven victims have alternated between black and white.
Many (but not all) hunters given a chance would like to shoot a "prize buck," the largest, most fit male of the herd. This shooter appears to target mainly older men and women. To be very crass about it, in the shooter's mind could he be "culling the herd?" Or, could he identify with 14 to 38 year old males? Or, could they just not be on his radar screen?
Also, the interactive timeline linked on the right side of this page is informative.
Here are the times between shots:
3 and 4: 31 minutes
4 and 5: 25 minutes
5 and 6: 81 minutes
Shots 5 and 6 are separated by just 5 miles, and took place on what looks to be the same street. So, what was the shooter doing in the time span of almost an hour and a half? Was he just driving around, and it took longer to find a victim than in the other cases? Did he drive south and check out the area around where shooting 7 occurred? Was he driving by the previous shooting locations to see what the cops were doing?
Or, did he stop somewhere and perhaps listen to a police scanner or a news radio station? Are there parks on or near Connecticut Ave? Or, perhaps a McDonalds or some other restaurant, or a gas station? Or, assuming that he has some kind of job, did he pick up or deliver something as part of that job?
Apropos of not thoroughly searching the park where Chandra Levy was found: I hope the cops have wondered about the time between shots 5 and 6 as well. I believe McDonalds videotapes not just the interior of their restaurants, but the drive-thru as well. Have the cops canvassed the local parks looking for people who might have seen someone in a suspect truck parked there? Have they looked for companies that might have had pickups or deliveries in that time period?
Posted at 11:50 AM
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October 16, 2002
I haven't heard anyone analyzing the MD shooter's first shot, the one that went through the window at the Michael's store. I have a few ideas here.
According to this article, the shot was "a few feet above eye level." Why was this shot a "miss," and all the (known) others hit someone? Does it have a connection to the store, or perhaps the shooter was trying to send a message relating to the name "Michael," either what it means in Hebrew or in reference to a person named Michael? Or, could it be a red herring designed to foster the belief in a weird connection of some kind?
Also, this article has the rather disturbing info that "Side roads that radiate from Seven Corners, the busy junction where the sniper struck Monday night, were still open to traffic at least 15 minutes after the fatal shooting."
If not for that fact, and the supposed report that bloodhounds tracked the shooter on foot for several miles, I'd think the shooter might have a safe house within the search perimeter, such as I described earlier. Another, very complicated and problematic but still possible idea I got from freerepublic.com is that the shooter drove his vehicle into a waiting big rig and was able to escape that way.
Posted at 01:32 PM
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October 15, 2002
Do we really need to deploy military spy drones to find a sniper who's killed a relatively small number of people? The deaths are certainly tragic, but I don't think it's either necessary or wise to use the military in this case. Good detective work, plus taking proactive steps like trying to figure out likely spots where the sniper will strike next and staking them out, should be able to do the trick.
Unless the sniper disappears immediately, this is probably not going to go on much longer. It will probably end in a final gun battle, the shooter being killed along with his exact motive and his knowledge of whoever helped him.
While I still think this is most likely just one or two psychos without a political motivation, I have to admit that there's a moderate chance this could be a terrorist attack. But, does that mean it has to be al Queda? I don't think so. Aren't their plans usually a bit more ham-handed? According to an al Queda training tape, one of their plans was to have shooters in the back of pickups. Then, when the first responders arrived, shoot them too. That's pretty far removed from sniping and then successfully fleeing, no? Whoever's doing this doesn't want to be caught, at least right now. And, they've apparently put some thought into how they're going to get away. None of the attacks so far appear to have been the work of someone who's suicidal. Could this be the work of a more intelligent, devious organization, such as a state's secret police? Say, Iraq? If this is an Iraqi agent, he would most likely not be suicidal, and he would most likely want to be able to get away so no suspicion would fall on Iraq. However, with each passing incident, the chance of him getting caught increases. It would seem like a wise spy would have stopped well before now and faded back into the woodwork.
Even if this is terrorism, I don't think calling out the military is a wise or necessary move.
Posted at 02:02 PM
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October 14, 2002
Assuming that the tarot card left at one of the sniper's sites said "Dear Mr. Policeman, I am God," it might be somewhat interesting to note that an anagram of the initials of that phrase is "mad pig."
Posted at 12:32 PM
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October 13, 2002
Let's assume:
- the white truck exists and is more or less as described
- the white truck belongs to the sniper
- the sniper doesn't want to get caught, at least now
- the correct truck has not yet been turned in by someone to the police tip line
Could the sniper be driving this truck around the general area on a daily basis?
Most likely not, with one exception. The description of the truck includes indistinct or so-far-unrecognized black lettering on the side. What if that lettering is just a red herring? What if, instead of being painted on the truck, the lettering is on a plastic card of some kind which is inserted into a bracket on the truck or is otherwise bolted to the solid white truck. Alternatively, the lettering could be on the truck (perhaps not fully painted over), but most of the time it's covered with a large plastic sign.
Let's say you buy a used truck which is painted with the name of some other company. To look spiffy, you decide to paint the truck, but you're also cheap. Because you know you're going to put a sign there anyway, you don't pay that much attention to obliterating the previous company's name, you just do a bad, quick paint job.
The sniper could put the letter board on the truck (or take the larger letter board off) just before committing an attack, and then simply reverse the procedure afterwards. Those who see the truck would notice that it didn't have the requisite lettering, and would assume it's not the truck that's being looked for.
But, for now, let's make the further assumption that the lettering is painted onto the truck, and it's not covered up by the sniper.
Could the sniper drive that truck around on his daily business, assuming that he has a job of some kind?
I don't think he could spend a lot of time in one area near the crime scenes, or regularly visit the areas around the crime scenes, in this truck without someone turning him in. The reward is very large and people are on the lookout for this truck. If, for instance, you worked at a delivery company with several trucks like this, wouldn't you examine them to see if one of them had rear body damage, or if the timing is such that they could have been used? If you worked at, for instance, a restaurant, wouldn't you pay special notice to the delivery trucks, or think back to what the trucks used by those who deliver to the restaurant look like? Even if you were going to employ a plumber for a very small and quick job, wouldn't you examine his truck to see if it matched the description? Even if this is someone who you've known for a long time, a half a million dollars can make people turn in even their own family members.
So, still assuming that the somewhat illegible black lettering is not usually covered over or removed somehow, I don't think this truck has that much people contact.
There are, however, a couple of exceptions to my supposition. One, it could be driven by someone no one suspects, or two, the writing could be such that no one suspects it.
In the first case, the usual driver of the truck could be a clergyman of some kind, or could be an elderly woman.
In the second case, the lettering on the truck could be for the rangers at some local park, or a university, or a church, or some kind of inner-city food program.
In either of those cases, people would tend not to suspect the truck.
That, I believe, covers the cases where the truck has a fair amount of contact with people in the general area of the attacks.
Alternatively, the truck could be used as a work truck, but it is only used as such in an area far enough away to avoid suspicion, such as PA or NC.
But, generally, I don't think this truck is currently used as a work truck. I think the sniper realizes it's important to avoid the truck being seen regularly.
If the truck is not parked 100 or more miles away from the general area, it's probably stored in an unobservable area with difficult-to-observe ingress and egress. Two such areas come to mind, both desolate: a very rural area with easy access to a crowded highway, or a deserted industrial area, perhaps right across from railroad tracks, a concrete sound buffer, a river, or some other natural or man-made protection from observation. For added protection, the truck could only be driven out early in the morning, and it could be returned after dark.
Where did the truck come from in the first place? Presumably, the police are cross-referencing MD and VA registrations. What if, for instance, it was bought in TX? The police most likely aren't checking registrations from out of the area. However, even if the witnesses aren't able to read the license plate numbers, surely one of them would have noticed that it didn't have the license plates that they're most likely used to. So, the sniper could have put stolen local plates on it, or switched the plates with another vehile to which he has access.
Alternatively, the truck could be a former work truck which hasn't been used for a couple years, and perhaps was registered as non-operational. The neighbors who knew at one time that the sniper owned such a truck would most likely have forgotten about it if they hadn't seen it being driven for a while.
Posted at 09:55 PM
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Interesting article from a WaPo movie critic (?) about the sniper from a shooter's perspective.
He refers to the first shot as a miss. That's the one that went through the Michael's craft store window. Apparently, all of his other shots hit someone; that's the only one that "missed." It continues to strike me as odd that someone who has the skills described in the WaPo article would have such a big miss.
Has the person who was the supposed target been found? Was it someone outside, or one of the people inside the store? Was this just the result of the sniper's inexperience? Had he never shot through a window before, but had only been shooting animals in the woods? Was his original target just windows, but he switched to people when the window thing didn't give him the emotional lift he was seeking? Was it the result of a dare? Was it an intentional miss to throw people off? Was he a fired Michael's employee or contractor?
Also, search for apricot here. He doesn't seem to be hitting them there, aiming for the body as described in the WaPo article referenced above.
Also, for one more possibility, search for (F here.
Posted at 12:01 PM
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October 08, 2002
This article thinks so, and lists all the school closures as evidence of the effect this has had. However, I remember the hysteria that greeted past cases like this (Hillside Strangler, Manson Family, etc. etc.) I don't think the reaction to this case is that much different.
It is certainly interesting that this happened near DC. It's also interesting that he's apparently using the same ammo as NATO. Could this be an attempt by the New World Order to force us even closer to a police state? In addition to those cameras pointing at the Wal*Mart parking lot, they could add cameras pointing at the surrounding streets, or, better yet, a camera on each corner. Or, joking about the WaPo story aside, what does the fact that the sniper's victims look like a diverse cross-section of the community mean? Is the sniper making a homocidal comment on the MultiCultiCult? Is the sniper doing it to throw people off on the sniper's real target(s)? Is the sniper doing it as part of terrorism to show that everyone's at risk? Or, was it just a coincidence, and those who were shot were in the wrong place at the wrong time?
In any case, DC is surrounded by rural areas in which live people who are used to hunting and killing animals. Does that make them more likely to kill people? No, it just means they're used to guns and the fact that guns can be used to kill. One of the people the cops wanted to talk to was supposed to be a drug user, in addition to other media-friendly stereotypes. However, based on the timing, I don't think the sniper was using meth at the time. If the sniper had been, the shooting probably would have continued through the night.
I still think this is just a psycho, thrill killin' good ol' boy who finally flipped his lid.
Posted at 12:13 PM
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October 07, 2002
This WaPo article has that as its subtitle. "Their names and faces reflected the diversity that has become Montgomery County... etc. etc..."
Yes, but none of the victims were Asian. Or, at least East Asian. And, none were Native American, Pacific Islander, or Inuit, Eskimo, Aleutian, or Other. Someone call Jesse Jackson.
Posted at 03:18 PM
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October 05, 2002
There was a discussion on USENET about the MD sniper. Someone thought it might be terrorists. I posted the following remarks.
"Who's terrorized? It looks like the killers have moved south, and there might not be any more shootings, at least for a while. Political terrorists, even if their specific group denies its guilt, usually want their crimes to be discovered to be terrorism rather than something that a psycho or a common criminal might do. They have a cause, after all. Unlike terrorists, these people were using a sniper rifle and appear to want to be able to get away with it. They were apparently shooting fairly well: I think there were no missed shots.
They could be current or ex-military, current or ex-cops, hunters, backwoodsmen, or have experience just as a hobby. If it was terrorism, I think they would have either tried to kill or terrorize many more people. If this starts happening with other killers in other cities, or if they leave some kind of indication of their cause, I would think it would be terrorism then.
What's interesting is that the first shot was through a shop window. Were they trying to hit someone and missed? A test shot? I think it's more likely that that was the result of a dare.
Let's say you and your brother own a small business of some kind in a rural area either north or south of DC. You're delivering something to the DC area. You bring along your rifle, well, just because.
Your brother says "I dare you to fire into that window." You do it, no one catches you, and you feel emboldened. Later that evening, they shot their first victim. Shooting someone might have been just the next step up from shooting through a window.
Then, they slept. The next morning, they drove around looking for more opportunities since the first one they did went so smooth. Then, you decide to get out of dodge. You stop for food in VA and do another one. Then you head for the hills and (sadly) bury your trusty weapon in the deepest hole you can find. Then you keep driving south, or head east and then north.
Maybe that's way off. But, I think the shooter and driver need to have a lot of trust or be on the same wavelength. Maybe they were cousins like Buono and Steve Ventura. Or, maybe they're army or cop buddies. While they might end up being gangsters, I think it's more likely that they're from a rural area."
Someone else pointed out that this might be like the Tylenol poisonings; only one person was the real target, the others were shot to throw everyone off. Based on the descriptions of the targets, none seemed important enough. Perhaps a domestic dispute? I think the Tylenol idea is a bit of a stretch.
Posted at 11:16 AM
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